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14/02/07 ByteSense - Analyse Your Adsense Earnings
I’m really excited about this. I’ve created a mashup of PHPlot with a parser I wrote for the Google Adsense CSV exports and thrown in a bit of trend forecasting mathematics. The result, an online app called ByteSense that will chart your earnings, show your growth rate and forecast your income into the future.
By uploading the CSV of your Google Adsense [Advanced Report] for ‘All Time’ earnings by day (instructions here), we are able to do the following:
The thin grey line is a plot of your average daily earnings. This allows you to relate the predictions to reality. This line has been smoothed over the week to reduce any highly erratic days.
The 300 & 150 Moving Averages (MA) are designed to reduce the seasonal influences of summer/winter tidal patterns. If the green is on top you are growing, if the red is on top you are reducing your earnings. The distance between these two lines characterises your growth rate, if they are getting wider - you’re in the money!
The real gem in this is the ‘Trend Analysis’:
The dashed gold line is the trend we’ve forecast for you. This line will predict what your earnings will be in the future.
This gold line projects your earnings to ‘time & a half’ (i.e. if you give me 24 months of data, I’ll project it out a further 12 months into the future). I’ve tested this function by running reports with and without the last year included, showing the predicted & actual plots and found it to be pretty accurate so far - mind you I built the app on my data as test data, so mileage may vary.
What can you do for me?
- To make this better I need testers, and valid test data too! If you can try the app out and comment on the prediction results here, I’d be much appreciative.
- If you were really generous, you’d link-to/email me a screen-shot of your results - with numerical values cropped out for privacy.
- Post any bugs or suggestions you encounter.
- If you like it, get me more testers via your blog.
Where’s the going?
I’m in ‘experimentation’ mode right now. A big thanks to Tom, James, Rowan & Michele for doing some early debugging for me late last night. A few suggestions I’ve already pooled from contributors:
- “cleaner graphs would look a lot better”
- “fonts are very rough - they’re legible, but not exactly pretty”
- “
lavender line is almost invisible” “perhaps it’s my monitor settings but I” Update: Line now darker grey.
find it very hard to see the lavender line - “why doesn’t google show stuff like this if its useful?”
- “would it make you change something about your site? if you saw a certain trend?”
- “Did you think about using this: Adsense API“
- “A mouse-over value would be a nice idea”
Please give ByteSense a whirl for me!
Tags: General, Ideas, News, Portfolio
16 Comments
Sounds good Robin. I’ll plug dublin.ie’s data into it either later on or tomorrow and email a screen of the graph then.
Well done Robin - looks great!
You might want to mention if you keep the uploaded data yourself in case people have privacy concerns,
Tom.
14/02/07 Graphing Your Adsense Results
[...] Last night Robin asked me to test out a new “toy” he’d thrown together, which he refers to as a “mashup”. Personally I dislike that term. It sounds far too negative and messy. Referring to it as a “hack” would be more positive in my eyes, but that’s just me. [...]
@ Tom: Yes tom, good point. Will add that in.
@Anthony: Thanks Anthony. Look forward to seeing results!
15/02/07 How to graph your Adsense Earnings at Holy Shmoly!
[...] Before you try it, read the blog post with a more detailed explanation and instructions, then give it a whirl for yourself. [...]
Robin great jobs, Thanks to comments at my blog. ;)
What a great job! This is what i’m looking for, compliments!
If I could give and hint it’d be useful have the impressions data too on the graph, it would be a cool feature.
16/02/07 io, me e michele ^ Graph your Google Adsense Earnings!
[...] Su ByteSense basta uploadare il proprio report csv e con un click si ha il grafico dei guadagni con anche il trend futuro, riporto le spiegazioni dell’autore: The thin grey line is a plot of your average daily earnings. This allows you to relate the predictions to reality. This line has been smoothed over the week to reduce any highly erratic days. [...]
Michele, thanks for your comments - and for blogging about ByteSense. I need to check the Adsense Terms & Conditions about showing impressions. I know they are not happy for people to share their CTR - which can be calculated by the earnings/impressions.
16/02/07 Damien Mulley » Blog Archive » Fluffy 15th
[...] ByteSense. Analyse your AdSense earnings. Yet another fantastic application from Robin. [...]
26/02/07 ByteSurgery » ByteSense - More Accurate Adsense Forecasts - Digital Media Engineering [ Robin Blandford ]
[...] More changes coming very soon, I’ve a good few more ideas to incorporate! If you don’t know what I’m talking about, read more about ByteSense. TrackBack URI [...]
Nice one Robin - love it.
Firstly, I second Tom’s reservations about privacy!
Secondly, a suggestion: I think a very popular feature would be the ability to strip out actual dollar values and share your graph.
Stripping out the values so that people don’t contravene the terms of their agreement with Google, but still allowing people to show off what progress they have made over time.
Another feature which would be good for total stats junkies and Adsense fanatics would be the ability to add notes onto certain dates - such as ‘moved adsense ads to top of blog on this date…’
Anyway, lovely lovely stuff,
Frank
02/04/07 ByteSurgery [ Robin Blandford ] » ByteSense Is Working (Again) - Digital Media Engineering
[...] Thanks to Google changing their Adsense CSV export without notice - ByteSense broke last week. It’s now bandaged up again - and working perfectly. I’m delighted to see myself, great growth in Find Me A Tent since February! Please try out the service to analyse your Adsense earnings. Please note: You do need as long a period of data as possible (1 year is a good start). Here’s some analysis of my Adsense sites: [...]
delilah hey there…
shit-happens 2649998 delilah hey there info and more…
me again … Robin, is the tool currently acting up ? I can’t get it to show the projected earnings bit at all. :(
regards,
paul
[...] proprio report csv e con un click si ha il grafico dei guadagni con anche il trend futuro, riporto le spiegazioni dell’autore: The thin grey line is a plot of your average daily earnings. This allows you to relate the [...]
